Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi listens during a debate between opposition party leaders in the upper house of the Diet in Tokyo, Japan, November 26, 2025. /VCG
Editor's note: Xu Weijun is an assistant research professor at the Institute of Public Policy, South China University of Technology. His research interests include East Asian international relations, nationalism, Chinese diplomacy, and China-U.S. relations. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.
On November 23, during an inspection visit to Yonaguni Island, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced that plans were underway to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles on the island. Yonaguni Island is located at the westernmost point of the Yaeyama Islands in the Ryukyu Islands Archipelago, only about 110 kilometers east of China's Taiwan region. This move represents a significant step in the Japanese government's efforts to advance the Southwest Shift of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and further strengthen its military deployments related to the Taiwan region.
Despite Koizumi's assertion that the deployment was intended to defend Japan from encroaching aircraft and missiles, it is evident that the primary intention of this deployment at this highly sensitive location is directed toward China. If Japan does not intend to intervene in a so-called Taiwan situation, the deployment on Yonaguni offers very limited military value for Japan's homeland defense. Yonaguni's key geostrategic advantage is its proximity to the Taiwan region, but the island lies approximately 500 kilometers from Okinawa's main island and is much farther from mainland Japan. Therefore, the underlying motivation behind Japan's missile deployment is obvious. It is preparing for a so-called Taiwan contingency, demonstrating an ambition to contain China and to intervene in its domestic affairs concerning Taiwan.
Yonaguni Island is regarded as Japan's closest permanent outpost to the Taiwan Strait within its effective control. The deployment of missiles in this area would significantly enhance the JSDF's surveillance and interception capabilities over the surrounding maritime and air domains. The missiles Koizumi said would be deployed this time are Type 03 Chu-SAM missiles, with an approximate range of 50 kilometers. However, once the relevant military facilities are in place, the possibility of subsequent deployment of longer-range or more offensive weapons cannot be ruled out.
From the perspective of regional security, Japan's deployment could alter the military landscape in the maritime and air domains surrounding the Taiwan region. In the context of the prevailing tensions in China-Japan relations, Japan's assertion that the deployment is defensive is difficult for China to accept. In China's view, this move – coming after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's erroneous remarks on Taiwan – signals an intention to intervene in China's internal affairs through specific actions. As the spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense stated, Japan's dangerous approach will uproot the post-WWII international order and lead Japan to repeat the mistakes of its militarist past.
Moreover, this deployment would result in the U.S.-Japan alliance becoming more directly involved in potential conflict scenarios in the Taiwan Strait or the East China Sea. If relevant military facilities were accidentally hit or directly involved in exchanges of fire during a conflict, Article 5 of the U.S.–Japan Security Treaty could be triggered, thereby drawing the United States into the regional fighting and producing spillover and escalation. In the context of strategic retrenchment under the Trump administration and growing uncertainties about the credibility of U.S. security commitments, Japan might even seek to bind the United States to a military presence and actual intervention in the Taiwan Strait by deliberately manufacturing incidents in which it is attacked.
It is worth noting that this deployment plan cannot be attributed solely to the military ambitions of the Takaichi cabinet; rather, it is a continuation of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s long-standing pursuit of so-called normalization and the ambition to become a major military power. In recent years, the LDP governments have consistently pursued revisions to Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, pushed to lift restrictions on the exercise of collective self-defense, and expanded military capabilities. These measures have entailed a systematic dismantling of the constraints imposed by pacifism, in a move toward becoming a major military power.
The plan to deploy medium-range missiles on Yonaguni Island reflects Japan's dangerous tendency in recent years. In fact, the process of military development on Yonaguni has been ongoing for a considerable period. As early as 2015, the Shinzo Abe administration began stationing JSDF personnel and deploying various weapons on the island. The plan announced by Koizumi had also already been reported as early as January 2025. Furthermore, Japan's military deployments across the Nansei Islands constitute a long-standing and systematic program. For instance, in September 2025, during U.S.-Japan joint military exercises, the cabinet of then Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba agreed to deploy the U.S. Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and the Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS) on Ishigaki Island.
Japan's long-standing pursuit of becoming a major military power has become more pronounced under the Takaichi cabinet. The primary objective of the cabinet in the military and security domains is to challenge the postwar pacifist framework and to systematically strengthen Japan's military capabilities. The Takaichi cabinet employs the concept of defense normalization as its core narrative, portraying its high-risk measures as essential adjustments to address real threats. The measures to be implemented include an increase in defense spending, a revision of the three national security documents, the National Security Strategy of Japan, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program, and a strengthening of forward defense capabilities in the Nansei Islands, also known as the Ryukyu Islands. On this basis, the Takaichi cabinet is attempting to shift Japan's security strategy from traditional passive defense toward capabilities, including preemptive strikes and forward deterrence, thereby further escalating the adventurous nature of its military expansion.
From the Chinese perspective, the military deployments of the Takaichi cabinet warrant vigilance and will inevitably trigger countermeasures from China because these deployments pose a dual danger at both the geostrategic and security levels. On the one hand, such forward deployments would normalize the stationing of Japanese military forces in close proximity to the Taiwan Strait, potentially becoming a pivotal point for containing China and facilitating Japan-U.S. collaborative operations. This would directly narrow China's reaction time and increase the operational costs of safeguarding national sovereignty and ensuring the security of maritime channels. Also, it would considerably heighten the probability of the U.S.-Japan alliance being directly embroiled in a crisis. On the other hand, should such actions continue, the subsequent measures of the Takaichi cabinet in the security domain could accelerate Japan's transformation into a major military power or even lead to a revival of militarism. This would pose a direct threat to China's national security and regional stability.
Therefore, China perceives Japan's missile deployment as an extremely dangerous provocation. To prevent further escalation of the situation, China needs to establish a multi-layered response system. China needs to convey its clear stance through bilateral consultations and multilateral diplomatic coordination while also employing necessary economic and even military countermeasures to effectively deter Japan's dangerous military maneuvers.
Published in CGTN，27-Nov-2025
